Some notes on the 90-Day Trade Ceasefire between the US & China
(Photo Carlos Barria / Reuters)
I defer to this excellent write-up by SCMP, but have summarized a few points:
- Xi will be happy to meet Trump's demands because he knows China can find all sorts of ways to come out on-top
- It furthers a US-China power coalition in Asia which favors Chinese interests (a la Trump's attitude over Saudi Arabia)
Other interesting points:
- Fentanyl will be viewed more strictly under PRC law, stemming its flow out of Asia (pharma interest?)
- A major semiconductor merger will be allowed
- This seems to play into Xi's interest in strengthening China's presence in Asia by taking advantage of Trump's soft understanding of foreign policy (i.e. I'd have a hard time imagining Mattis would be ok getting closer to China as they increasing look to reclaim HK and Taiwan)
I think it be worth reading further into coverage from Taiwan in the coming days. My understanding is that news coverage there is relatively split between the Democratic Progressive Party -leaning China Times and Kuomintang -leaning Liberty Times.
Further, there has been recent reporting on a new 200-page report published by the Hoover Institution covering US-China relations. I've been meaning to get to that report, and feel that it would be interesting as it would provide in-depth analysis after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China aimed to remove term limits on Prime Minister Xi.
- Xi will be happy to meet Trump's demands because he knows China can find all sorts of ways to come out on-top
- It furthers a US-China power coalition in Asia which favors Chinese interests (a la Trump's attitude over Saudi Arabia)
Other interesting points:
- Fentanyl will be viewed more strictly under PRC law, stemming its flow out of Asia (pharma interest?)
- A major semiconductor merger will be allowed
- This seems to play into Xi's interest in strengthening China's presence in Asia by taking advantage of Trump's soft understanding of foreign policy (i.e. I'd have a hard time imagining Mattis would be ok getting closer to China as they increasing look to reclaim HK and Taiwan)
I think it be worth reading further into coverage from Taiwan in the coming days. My understanding is that news coverage there is relatively split between the Democratic Progressive Party -leaning China Times and Kuomintang -leaning Liberty Times.
Further, there has been recent reporting on a new 200-page report published by the Hoover Institution covering US-China relations. I've been meaning to get to that report, and feel that it would be interesting as it would provide in-depth analysis after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China aimed to remove term limits on Prime Minister Xi.
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