All Eyes on Taiwan

Embed from Getty Images There have been a slew of interesting articles published since the start of 2019 which have indicated China's continued focus on retaking Taiwan.

The Japan Times has reported that Mr. Xi has urged the PRC's military, the People's Liberation Army or PLA, to prepare for the possibility of war.

"Xi’s warning comes amid territorial disputes in the South and East China seas and rising tensions with the United States over issues ranging from trade to Taiwan." "A military that can fight and win a war will be presented then,” the Global Times quoted Beijing-based military expert and commentator Song Zhongping as saying."

The Taiwan News highlighted that on January 2nd Mr. Xi gave an address on the 40th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party's "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan." Mr. Xi stated, "Taiwan is so close, yet so far away." While his most recent speech continued to push, "one country, two systems," the terminology used in the reclamation of Hong Kong and Macao, he did call for specific action, with sites set on a bridge linking Taiwan's Kinmen Island and the PRC's Fujian. This would be intended to link resources such as water and electricity.

Perhaps the most insightful piece Deng Yuwen's Op piece in the South China Morning Post. I highly recommend reading the piece in full, but want to point to a few things he mentioned:

 - In Mr. Xi's report to the 19th Communist Party Congress, a new era to 2050 is laid out as the period of the "Great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation"

 - There are 14 points which define this new era, one of them referring to the reunification of Taiwan

 - In this context, Mr. Xi specifically refers to the "one country, two systems" solution

 - In December 2018, Li Kexin, who works in the Chinese embassy in Washington said:

“The day a US Navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.”

While Deng Yuwen does not explicitly call upon Trump's isolationist rhetoric (instead he points to Trump's condemnation of China and Russia's focus on growing military strength from December 2017), I cannot help but wonder if there are ramifications for the PLA's timeline for engaging Taiwan.

Lastly, I find the piece particularly interesting as Deng Yuwen is a member of the Charhar Institute. This NGO, which claims its goals are "the development of international relations in a more orderly manner." It was founded by Dr. Han Fangming, who received his doctorate at Peking University and conducted post-doctoral research at Harvard. He was also a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) for the 10th, 11th, and 12th sessions, and sits on the board of Chinese State companies such as the Sinohydro Group. In other words, the particular aims and leanings of this NGO are odd to me, in that the membership appears to be very aligned with CCP's interests, but their membership seems willing to be more critical of the PRC than one would expect from such a group.